The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has revised Nigeria’s economic growth outlook upward, projecting a 3.9% expansion in 2025 and 4.2% in 2026.
The new projections were released on Tuesday, October 14, during the presentation of the World Economic Outlook (WEO) 2025 at the ongoing World Bank and IMF Annual Meetings in Washington, D.C.
In its July 2025 update, the IMF had estimated Nigeria’s growth at 3.4%, but the latest figures reflect a 0.5 percentage point increase—an indication of renewed optimism in Nigeria’s reform-driven economic rebound.
According to the Fund, Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is expected to rise between 3.2% and 3.9% in the second quarter of 2025, supported by economic rebasing, improved foreign exchange stability, and increased business activity.
The IMF attributed the stronger outlook to several domestic factors, including higher crude oil output, growing investor confidence, and a supportive fiscal policy stance anticipated for 2026.
While Nigeria’s economy has been revised upward, the report noted that many other countries are experiencing downward adjustments due to shifting global trade patterns and reduced development aid.
The new projections place Nigeria ahead of South Africa, whose economy is expected to grow by 1.1% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, though still slightly below the Sub-Saharan Africa regional average of 4.1% and 4.4% for 2025 and 2026 respectively.
Globally, the IMF anticipates world growth to moderate to 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026—slightly higher than the July 2025 update but still 0.2 percentage points below earlier forecasts. Advanced economies are projected to grow by about 1.5%, with the United States slowing to 2.0%, while emerging markets and developing economies are set to expand just above 4%.
Global inflation is expected to decline to 4.2% in 2025 and 3.7% in 2026, with world trade volume projected to grow by an average of 2.9% between 2025 and 2026—down from 3.5% in 2024 due to persistent trade fragmentation.
